Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x28bf…4a4e
weather · 978 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$10,600 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,852 · open −$4,659
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$695
Realized−$5,852
Unrealized−$4,659
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses12 / 73
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions491
Markets (closed)85 / 978
History coverage1d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day2304.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 491 History 85 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,852
7 days−$5,852
14 days−$5,852
30 days−$5,852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? No 99¢ 99¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No 94¢ 97¢ $71 $73 +$2 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? No 98¢ 97¢ $73 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day? No 96¢ 96¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? No 83¢ 84¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Will FC Barcelona win Liga Endesa? Yes 5¢ 36¢ $9 $63 +$54 (+610%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 74¢ 78¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No 54¢ 44¢ $41 $34 −$7 (-18%)
Will Carlos Moore win the 2026 GA-13 special election? Yes 5¢ 24¢ $4 $18 +$15 (+414%)
Will La Laguna Tenerife win Liga Endesa? Yes 5¢ 42¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+732%)
Will De'Aaron Fox lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+112%)
Will Joventut Badalona win Liga Endesa? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Miles McBride lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+94%)
Will Amazon have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+895%)
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Yes 14¢ 97¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+579%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 92¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+362%)
Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? Yes 6¢ 98¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1667%)
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $9 $2 −$6 (-71%)
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+168%)
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+153%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 66¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+227%)
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat? Yes 12¢ 40¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+216%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 92¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+360%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? Yes 17¢ 65¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+290%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +2473%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1000%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1202%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May? Jun 12 $0 $0 +900%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1692%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 12 $0 $0 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1003%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1003%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +4036%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $118 −$118 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $17 −$17 -96%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $208 −$208 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $222 −$222 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $166 −$166 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $31 −$31 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 −$59 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 12 $27 −$26 -99%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $99 −$96 -97%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$18 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $167 −$167 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $241 −$241 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $159 −$159 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -75%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $232 −$232 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $124 −$124 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $316 −$316 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $397 −$397 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 31% −$4,491
other 26% −$4,330
tech 9% −$780
politics 9% −$870
world 8% −$700
sports 7% +$1,214
finance 6% $0
culture 3% −$560
economics 1% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 39¢ $12 1m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $30 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 18¢ $5 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $8 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 39¢ $3 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 39¢ $3 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $7 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 85¢ $26 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $30 2m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $18 2m
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $26 3m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 16¢ $12 3m
Will Mexico be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 92¢ $14 3m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 69¢ $15 6m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $8 6m
Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 6m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 87¢ $26 7m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $7 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on BUY No 100¢ $30 8m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 73¢ $22 8m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 63¢ $3 9m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 95¢ $71 10m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 98¢ $22 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 91¢ $45 13m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 91¢ $41 13m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 96¢ $29 13m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $124 13m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY No 16¢ $5 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +63.0% +47.5% 14% 14% -78.2%
≤30d 85 +63.0% +47.5% 14% 14% -78.2%
≤90d 85 +63.0% +47.5% 14% 14% -78.2%
all 85 +63.0% +47.5% 14% 14% -78.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2304.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.5% 14% -78.2%
10% ← realistic here +33.4% 14% -80.3%
15% +20.5% 14% -82.2%
20% +8.7% 14% -84.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $694.86 · official $690.23 (match) · 3500 history records