Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28be…6dbe other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$10 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$49
sports 15% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +39.7% +26.4% 77% 69% -10.8%
≤30d 13 +39.7% +26.4% 77% 69% -10.8%
≤90d 13 +39.7% +26.4% 77% 69% -10.8%
all 13 +39.7% +26.4% 77% 69% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.4% 69% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here +14.3% 69% -19.3%
15% +3.3% 54% -27.1%
20% -6.9% 38% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +78% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$26 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 −$20 -33%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9 +$3 +34%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 25 $3 $0 -7%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $15 +$9 +60%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys Jun 25 $20 +$8 +40%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $8 +$4 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $27 +$26 +99%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 $0 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$3 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $41 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $2 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys BUY Ugo Humbert 71¢ $20 7h
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 62¢ $15 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Naomi Osaka 51¢ $3 11h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Naomi Osaka 59¢ $3 11h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Naomi Osaka 59¢ $5 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 21h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 25¢ $2 22h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 25¢ $1 22h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 34¢ $3 22h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 42¢ $2 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 23h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 51¢ $1 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.51 · official $145.51 (match) · 49 history records