Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
28 0x28be…9e69 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$287 (-2%) realized +$2,283 · open −$2,570
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$747per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$5,930now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,125
7 days+$4,125
14 days+$4,125
30 days+$4,125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$3,164
sports 44% −$1,568
crypto 4% −$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +73.2% +56.7% 100% 100% +56.7%
≤30d 1 +73.2% +56.7% 100% 100% +56.7%
≤90d 17 -6.4% -15.3% 35% 35% +46.5%
all 17 -6.4% -15.3% 35% 35% +46.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 35% +46.5%
10% -23.4% 29% +32.5%
15% -30.8% 29% +19.7%
20% -37.6% 24% +8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +62% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$728 vs −$37 · ×19.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.68 per $1 lost it wins $10.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$5,930
Realized+$2,283
Unrealized−$2,570
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage78d
Avg bet$747
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 85¢ 64¢ $6,500 $4,932 −$1,568 (-24%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 40¢ $1,000 $534 −$466 (-47%)
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 19¢ $1,000 $463 −$537 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5,635 +$4,125 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 15 $24 −$8 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 14 $80 −$23 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 14 $45 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 14 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 13 $30 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 13 $30 +$154 +512%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 13 $35 +$26 +74%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $109 +$42 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $6,529 1h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,008 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $5,635 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $96 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $16 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $15 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $4 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $20 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $7 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $30 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $40 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $20 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $39 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,929.55 · official $5,990.53 · 66 history records