Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

28 0x28bb…69b8 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$440 (+22%) realized +$447 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip

Net edge+9%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate59%16W / 11L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$67per market

Trades / day26.7pace

Fees−$22est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+27.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	+41.1%	+27.7%	59%	59%	+10.3%
≤30d	27	+41.1%	+27.7%	59%	59%	+10.3%
≤90d	27	+41.1%	+27.7%	59%	59%	+10.3%
all	27	+41.1%	+27.7%	59%	59%	+10.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover26.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+27.7%	59%	+10.3%
10% ← realistic here	+15.5%	59%	-0.2%
15%	+4.3%	48%	-9.9%
20%	-5.9%	48%	-18.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +41% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +99% → late -13% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$43 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$188

Realized+$447

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses16 / 11

Est. fees paid−$22

Open positions1

Markets (closed)27 / 30

History coverage2d

Avg bet$67

Trades / day26.7

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	68¢	66¢	$196	$188	−$7 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$61	−$60	-98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$51	−$50	-98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$51	−$50	-99%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$51	−$50	-99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$51	+$31	+62%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$51	+$40	+79%
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 23	$10	−$2	-19%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria?	Jun 23	$10	−$1	-14%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$79	+$41	+52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0	Jun 23	$31	+$49	+160%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$50	+$16	+32%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$152	+$102	+67%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals	Jun 23	$31	−$30	-100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$51	+$80	+156%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$71	−$70	-98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$99	+$92	+93%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$101	+$71	+70%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 22	$51	−$50	-98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	Jun 22	$81	+$49	+60%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$101	+$71	+70%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$100	−$99	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$24	+24%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 22	$18	+$37	+203%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt?	Jun 22	$7	+$58	+807%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$51	+$16	+31%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$51	+$39	+76%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$197	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	65¢	$211	1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	33¢	$61	1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	47¢	$51	2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	3h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$51	3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	100¢	$82	4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	61¢	$51	5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$91	5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$51	9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Wi	BUY	26¢	$36	18h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	6¢	$8	18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	18h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria?	SELL Yes	6¢	$9	18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	78¢	$120	18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0	SELL	79¢	$80	18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$18	18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$67	18h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$253	19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	46¢	$51	19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	69¢	$101	20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$61	21h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$50	21h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	21h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0	BUY	30¢	$31	21h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL	94¢	$131	21h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals	BUY Yes	41¢	$31	21h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	38¢	$71	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.42 · official $397.42 · 51 history records