Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
28 0x28ba…9d90 other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 428d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%26W / 32L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% $0
world 20% $0
politics 17% +$6
culture 4% $0
crypto 4% −$1
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 58 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 5% -9.1%
10% -16.8% 2% -17.8%
15% -24.8% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.2% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

428d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses26 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage428d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $76 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $1 $0 -14%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 26 $9 −$1 -14%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $3 $0 +6%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $61 +$4 +6%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? May 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 17 $1 $0 -7%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Latvia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will Georgia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? May 15 $7 −$5 -71%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? May 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 14 $8 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $8 $0 +5%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 09 $7 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 May 09 $16 $0 +1%
Will the next Pope be from South America? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Los Angeles Rams? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 18–25? Apr 24 $7 −$1 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $9 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $29 5h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $42 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $42 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $43 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $43 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $43 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $43 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 21d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL Yes $0 175d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? SELL No 82¢ $8 361d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? SELL Yes $0 366d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? SELL Yes $0 366d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? SELL Yes $0 366d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? SELL Yes $1 366d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? BUY Yes $2 366d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 381d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records