Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28b9…9f3a sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 579d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$113 (-46%) realized −$110 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$129
sports 37% +$16
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +49.1% +34.9% 26% 26% -17.0%
≤30d 19 +49.1% +34.9% 26% 26% -17.0%
≤90d 19 +49.1% +34.9% 26% 26% -17.0%
all 20 +41.7% +28.2% 25% 25% -55.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.2% 25% -55.4%
10% +15.9% 25% -59.7%
15% +4.7% 25% -63.6%
20% -5.6% 25% -67.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +102% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

579d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)20 / 25
History coverage579d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$34 +1104%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +123%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$15 +711%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 54m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $13 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $5 47h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $5 47h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $10 2d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $5 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $3 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 27¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 579d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.57 · official $22.59 (match) · 32 history records