Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28b9…396a other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,437 (-64%) realized −$1,727 · open −$710
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%4W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$392
7 days−$314
14 days−$314
30 days−$1,087
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 43% −$1,256
crypto 19% −$663
other 18% −$337
economics 10% −$352
sports 9% +$121
politics 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-76.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -49.4% -54.2% 27% 27% -45.9%
≤30d 17 -67.2% -70.3% 18% 18% -72.8%
≤90d 33 -73.7% -76.2% 12% 12% -73.4%
all 33 -73.7% -76.2% 12% 12% -73.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.2% 12% -73.4%
10% -78.5% 6% -75.9%
15% -80.6% 6% -78.3%
20% -82.5% 6% -80.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -81% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$78 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized−$1,727
Unrealized−$710
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses4 / 29
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions18
Markets (closed)33 / 51
History coverage52d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $75 $78 +$3 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $75 $64 −$11 (-15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $200 $34 −$166 (-83%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $100 $15 −$85 (-85%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-54%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $100 $9 −$91 (-91%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $6 −$44 (-88%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $4 −$46 (-93%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $70 $3 −$66 (-95%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $99 $1 −$98 (-99%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 5¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$4 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 +$231 +225%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $101 +$12 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 03 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 03 $102 −$102 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May? Jun 01 $154 −$154 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 01 $103 −$103 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in May? Jun 01 $103 −$103 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 01 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 29, 2026? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 27, 2026? May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 30, 2026? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 28, 2026? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 25, 2026? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 18, 2026? May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 22, 2026? May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 12? May 13 $133 −$133 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12? May 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026? May 11 $307 −$307 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of May 4 2026? May 07 $103 −$103 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1? May 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 07 $103 −$103 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $95 +$198 +210%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $17 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $18 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $52 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $62 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $103 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $52 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 6d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $104 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $104 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? BUY Yes 18¢ $104 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY Yes 83¢ $102 20d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $104 21d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in May? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.69 · official $452.23 (match) · 125 history records