trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +32.6% | +20.0% | 50% | 50% | -10.3% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +2.6% | -7.2% | 80% | 20% | -18.7% |
| all | 14 | -5.0% | -14.1% | 79% | 14% | -18.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.1% | 14% | -18.5% |
| 10% | -22.3% | 14% | -26.3% |
| 15% | -29.8% | 14% | -33.4% |
| 20% | -36.7% | 14% | -40.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 71¢ | 70¢ | $422 | $419 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $265 | −$262 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $156 | +$258 | +165% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 09 | $159 | +$88 | +55% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | May 09 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will March 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? | May 09 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? | May 09 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | May 09 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | May 09 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025? | May 09 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Magic vs. 76ers | Apr 15 | $171 | −$168 | -98% |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Feb 05 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | Jan 27 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the | Jan 27 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? | Jan 10 | $20 | $0 | +0% |