trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | Jun 14 | $2 | +$3 | +152% |
| Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $4 | −$4 | -97% |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | Jun 13 | $27 | −$3 | -11% |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Jun 13 | $34 | −$2 | -7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 13 | $50 | +$20 | +40% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 13 | $4 | +$4 | +93% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? | Jun 13 | $6 | −$4 | -64% |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? | Jun 13 | $4 | +$1 | +19% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? | Jun 12 | $6 | −$1 | -22% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 13? | Jun 11 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | Jun 11 | $82 | −$18 | -22% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | Jun 11 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele | Jun 11 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 12? | Jun 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | Jun 11 | $6 | −$6 | -99% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 11? | Jun 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 18 | -39.0% | -44.8% | 22% | 22% | -27.0% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -39.0% | -44.8% | 22% | 22% | -27.0% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -39.0% | -44.8% | 22% | 22% | -27.0% |
| all | 18 | -39.0% | -44.8% | 22% | 22% | -27.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -44.8% | 22% | -27.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -50.1% | 17% | -34.0% |
| 15% | -54.9% | 17% | -40.4% |
| 20% | -59.3% | 11% | -46.2% |