Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
28 0x28b7…c41c sports 328 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,222 (-0%) realized −$814 · open −$408
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%208W / 119L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$751per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$994est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,592now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 114d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$7,930
other 29% −$2,165
world 13% +$6,208
crypto 10% −$649
politics 0% +$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -6.3% -15.2% 67% 67% -5.1%
≤30d 60 +4.9% -5.1% 68% 67% +1.4%
≤90d 208 +0.0% -9.5% 66% 62% -9.7%
all 327 -0.7% -10.2% 64% 55% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 55% -10.9%
10% -18.8% 39% -19.4%
15% -26.6% 26% -27.2%
20% -33.8% 18% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,004) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$271 vs −$504 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$1,592
Realized−$814
Unrealized−$408
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses208 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$994
Open positions1
Markets (closed)327 / 328
History coverage114d
Avg bet$751
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 60¢ $2,000 $1,592 −$408 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $500 +$70 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,010 +$393 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,030 +$1,470 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06- Jun 16 $510 −$510 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $6,790 +$2,319 +34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,003 +$109 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $375 +$127 +34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $406 +$394 +97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,000 +$235 +24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $600 +$411 +68%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,509 −$401 -27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,022 +$1,152 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $1,500 +$275 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $504 +$154 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,006 +$229 +23%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,005 +$214 +21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,500 +$655 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $900 −$834 -93%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $547 +$136 +25%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $1,006 +$244 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $500 −$286 -57%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1,000 +$124 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $500 +$1,441 +288%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,007 +$145 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $500 −$21 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $504 +$154 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1,018 +$1,421 +140%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $509 −$509 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $504 +$190 +38%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $2,002 +$449 +22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,754 +$1,550 +56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $2,000 +$875 +44%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $102 +$102 +101%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $508 +$556 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $505 +$252 +50%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 31 $318 −$318 -100%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 31 $1,004 +$133 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1,005 +$192 +19%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $508 +$262 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $1,028 +$311 +30%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden May 30 $357 −$357 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 30 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $1,010 +$524 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $297 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $273 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,004 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06- SELL $0 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06- BUY 34¢ $510 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 44h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Belgium 90¢ $1,003 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $503 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $375 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $700 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $535 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $406 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 68¢ $349 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 68¢ $347 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 31¢ $314 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 30¢ $500 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 27¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,000 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,001 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $39 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,592.11 · official $1,592.11 (match) · 860 history records