Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x28b3…e4ec crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+14%) realized +$49 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate86%25W / 4L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$13
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$46
world 38% +$40
politics 13% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.1% -12.4% 88% 12% -8.5%
≤30d 28 +5.8% -4.2% 86% 36% +10.4%
≤90d 29 +6.8% -3.3% 86% 38% +13.0%
all 29 +6.8% -3.3% 86% 38% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 38% +13.0%
10% -12.6% 34% +2.2%
15% -21.0% 24% -7.7%
20% -28.8% 14% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.81 per $1 lost it wins $5.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses25 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage62d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 55¢ $42 $59 +$18 (+42%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? Yes 64¢ 55¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-14%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $11 +$7 +64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $31 +$20 +62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $31 +$13 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6 +$2 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 04 $67 +$23 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.54 · official $103.29 (match) · 98 history records