Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
28 0x28b3…08e3 sports 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$179 (+7%) realized +$185 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%52W / 59L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$615
7 days−$665
14 days−$97
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$170
crypto 17% −$62
other 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -94.4% -94.9% 0% 0% -94.3%
≤30d 48 +10.2% -0.3% 46% 46% -9.3%
≤90d 111 +11.3% +0.7% 47% 46% -4.2%
all 111 +11.3% +0.7% 47% 46% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 46% -4.2%
10% -9.0% 46% -13.4%
15% -17.7% 45% -21.8%
20% -25.8% 44% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$185
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses52 / 59
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage36d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 49¢ 42¢ $44 $38 −$6 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $50 −$5 -11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$39 +76%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 +$29 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $63 +$109 +172%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $30 +$26 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$17 +110%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $52 +$38 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $52 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$15 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $51 +$43 +85%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $20 +$19 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$84 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $101 +$65 +65%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1 +$10 +979%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $20 +$13 +65%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $30 +$23 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $51 +$47 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$56 +109%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 08 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $20 +$19 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $30 +$25 +82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 +$100 +197%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 05 $30 −$30 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $19 +$8 +41%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 May 22 $10 +$9 +89%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $45 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 47¢ $45 10h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $50 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $30 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $11 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $31 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $20 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $89 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $30 7d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 53¢ $30 9d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $51 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $32 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $32 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 9d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $31 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.37 · official $38.37 (match) · 258 history records