Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x28b1…d5e3
other · 45 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$4 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage463d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $31 −$1 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $1 $0 -6%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 betwe Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 02 $7 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National majority? May 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 6? May 09 $7 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on May 9? May 07 $6 $0 -1%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 06 $5 +$6 +128%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 31 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 700-724 times March 7-14? Mar 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 09 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 60% −$3
other 25% $0
politics 5% +$1
sports 4% $0
tech 4% +$6
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $8 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $32 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $1 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $19 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $20 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $40 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $44 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $44 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $45 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $46 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $8 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $22 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $22 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $42 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $24 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 12 -1.0% -10.5% 8% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 12 -1.0% -10.5% 8% 0% -10.2%
all 44 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.6% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 2% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.63 · official $9.63 (match) · 125 history records