Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28b1…e33f crypto 88 markets active 4d ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$645 (-23%) realized −$645 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%28W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$724
politics 0% −$6
sports 0% −$5
world 0% −$5
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -25.6% -32.7% 28% 28% -33.9%
≤30d 47 -25.6% -32.7% 28% 28% -33.9%
≤90d 88 -9.3% -17.9% 32% 32% -33.5%
all 88 -9.3% -17.9% 32% 32% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 32% -33.5%
10% -25.8% 32% -39.9%
15% -33.0% 32% -45.7%
20% -39.5% 31% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$30 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$645
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses28 / 60
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage67d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $114 −$32 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $87 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $58 −$45 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $73 +$156 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $55 +$85 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $68 −$50 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$45 +128%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$21 +390%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $112 −$106 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $53 +$164 +311%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $59 +$48 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $77 +$61 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$42 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$72 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $23 +$21 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$37 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 06 $65 −$65 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 560 history records