Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28ae…aba7 other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 246L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$27
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 25% −$23
economics 7% −$7
culture 6% −$8
crypto 6% −$8
politics 6% −$4
world 3% −$2
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage139d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $837 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $511 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $334 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $288 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $217 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $342 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $415 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $723 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $121 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $120 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $695 −$2 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $308 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $610 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $405 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $851 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $445 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $501 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $303 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $583 +$3 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $286 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $609 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $643 −$2 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $226 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $207 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 5h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 7h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 8h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 10h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $57 12h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $57 14h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $41 14h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $16 14h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 15h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 20h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 21h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 24h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 25h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 27h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 28h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 30h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 32h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 33h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 34h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 39h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 41h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 45h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 47h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.54 · official $56.54 (match) · 1426 history records