Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x28aa…8f75
world · 52 markets active 7h ago
7.0score
+$5,595 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,414 · open −$5,802
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$20,579
Realized+$11,414
Unrealized−$5,802
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses30 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
Avg bet$4,805
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 3 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,227
7 days+$837
14 days−$6,150
30 days+$12,663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 59¢ 58¢ $10,731 $10,569 −$162 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 78¢ 66¢ $6,882 $5,752 −$1,130 (-16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 34¢ $8,768 $4,258 −$4,510 (-51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? No 7¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? No 39¢ 0¢ $710 $0 −$710 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? No 0¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $9,393 +$1,338 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $8,400 +$992 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $22,990 +$1,179 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -94%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $6,401 −$6,401 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $7,300 +$2,621 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $13,000 +$1,218 +9%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $129 −$129 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 03 $350 −$221 -63%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $8,600 −$17 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $9,100 +$578 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 31 $732 −$710 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $32,960 +$974 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $20,585 +$2,297 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 29 $140 +$38 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $12,432 −$9,814 -79%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $1,500 −$1,292 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $1,000 +$38 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $7,700 +$1,300 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $62 −$60 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $8,700 +$1,205 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 28 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 28 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 29? May 28 $781 −$781 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $23,123 +$1,622 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 25 $4 +$29 +676%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 25 $18 +$65 +351%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $8,248 +$6,108 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 24 $105 +$251 +239%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $1,200 +$9,093 +758%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $2,732 +$795 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $3,573 +$159 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $3,016 +$557 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 13 $622 −$622 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 28 Jan 28 $252 +$472 +188%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 27? Jan 27 $130 +$179 +138%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $104 +$26 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 16? Jan 26 $80 +$24 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? Jan 16 $2,724 −$2,644 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? Jan 15 $879 +$395 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 15 Jan 15 $1,054 +$395 +38%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $601 +$453 +75%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $739 −$138 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $845 +$34 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $668 +$177 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 96% +$8,611
crypto 3% −$2,288
other 0% −$710
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $101 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 67¢ $101 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $10,731 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL No 98¢ $10,731 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY No 86¢ $9,393 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 90¢ $222 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $9,170 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $8,768 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 78¢ $7,000 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 83¢ $8,400 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 99¢ $119 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 99¢ $24,051 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 94¢ $22,990 3d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $1,008 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 99¢ $9,921 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 99¢ $13,672 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 95¢ $404 6d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $133 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 92¢ $132 8d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $129 8d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? SELL Yes 12¢ $129 8d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 83¢ $261 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 90¢ $13,000 9d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 79¢ $5,000 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $8,583 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? SELL No 96¢ $9,678 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $29 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -27.9% -34.8% 62% 38% -8.4%
≤30d 37 +24.0% +12.2% 57% 38% -4.2%
≤90d 38 +20.7% +9.2% 55% 37% -4.5%
all 49 +25.3% +13.4% 61% 45% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.4% 45% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here +2.5% 33% -14.0%
15% -7.4% 22% -22.3%
20% -16.5% 16% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,579.08 · official $20,669.41 (match) · 135 history records