Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:19:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28aa…28b8 other 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,902 (-9%) realized −$1,922 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate28%43W / 113L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$1,686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$16
14 days+$347
30 days−$1,418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$38
world 10% −$1,727
politics 8% −$66
sports 6% +$82
crypto 2% −$85
economics 2% −$5
weather 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -5.3% -14.3% 39% 39% -8.7%
≤30d 34 +31.9% +19.4% 35% 32% -38.9%
≤90d 90 -6.0% -15.0% 29% 23% -15.3%
all 156 -11.9% -20.3% 28% 23% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 23% -18.3%
10% -27.9% 19% -26.1%
15% -34.9% 15% -33.3%
20% -41.3% 12% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$60 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$1,686
Realized−$1,922
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses43 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions14
Markets (closed)156 / 183
History coverage210d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $336 $395 +$59 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $320 $273 −$47 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $230 $251 +$21 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $178 $235 +$57 (+32%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $116 $119 +$3 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $168 $119 −$49 (-29%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $87 $85 −$2 (-3%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-36%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $2 −$12 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $367 +$518 +141%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$14 +85%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $462 −$365 -79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $167 −$86 -51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $68 +$90 +133%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $25 −$7 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $83 −$9 -11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $206 −$27 -13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $137 −$122 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$8 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $25 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $59 −$9 -15%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $62 +$37 +60%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $22 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $63 +$36 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14 −$6 -42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $96 +$124 +130%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $217 +$91 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $159 +$4 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$8 -31%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 12 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $26 −$6 -25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $32 −$27 -84%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Jun 12 $1 $0 -22%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A Jun 11 $11 +$161 +1424%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $20 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $34 +$16 +47%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $82 −$9 -11%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1,709 −$1,709 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $1,513 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $4 $0 -5%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 08 $11 −$1 -6%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 07 $5 $0 -5%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce May 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $12 +$7 +58%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 01 $388 −$233 -60%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? May 01 $1,045 −$1,042 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 29 $3,063 +$2,037 +66%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 29 $22 +$5 +21%
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 29 $66 −$42 -64%
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Apr 29 $15 +$5 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $201 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $201 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $181 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $19 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $40 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $40 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $40 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $62 12h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $54 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $30 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY 2¢ $8 21h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 37¢ $56 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 8¢ $4 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 9¢ $3 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 9¢ $1 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 11¢ $6 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 28¢ $11 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 34¢ $17 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 39¢ $20 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,685.81 · official $1,694.26 (match) · 1143 history records