Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
28 0x28a5…84e9 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$608per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$14
world 21% −$5
politics 13% −$7
sports 5% −$3
culture 5% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 34 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 34 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,194) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage84d
Avg bet$608
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $106 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $1,328 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $1,302 −$2 -0%
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $1,324 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 19 $1,194 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $1,215 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 13 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $1,061 −$4 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 13 $1,022 −$3 -0%
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election May 12 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $73 $0 -0%
Will James Comey leave the country by May 15? May 12 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $961 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lee Kwang-jae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial electio May 10 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026? May 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio May 10 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $185 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 01 $54 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Eastern Conference? Mar 28 $168 $0 -0%
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? Mar 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in April 2026? Mar 28 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,326 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,297 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,339 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 2h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 2h
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,328 2h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,004 2h
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 2h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $297 2h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,302 3h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $57 23h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,284 23h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $12 23h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,236 23h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $20 23h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $25 24h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 24h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $906 24h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 24h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $287 24h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,194 24h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,228 46h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $61 46h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 46h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,192 46h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 46h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,302 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records