Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28a4…976f sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-4%) realized −$13 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$14
other 14% −$52
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 53% -13.8%
≤30d 38 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 53% -13.8%
≤90d 38 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 53% -13.8%
all 38 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 53% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 53% -13.8%
10% -20.6% 47% -22.1%
15% -28.3% 42% -29.6%
20% -35.3% 39% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 36¢ $60 $45 −$15 (-25%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 57¢ 40¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 −$4 -17%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 +$13 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$10 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 +$31 +152%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21 +$16 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 +$18 +90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $21 +$19 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$18 +90%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $21 −$20 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$29 +140%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$4 +17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$21 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$17 +83%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 +$27 +134%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 +$12 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 +$15 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $21 +$31 +152%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $21 +$7 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $21 +$14 +67%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $21 −$21 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $17 −$16 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$4 +18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $17 +$12 +73%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $21 −$20 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $21 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $41 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $21 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 43¢ $19 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will A BUY 32¢ $10 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $21 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 36¢ $17 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $21 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $21 11h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $21 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $21 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $21 33h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 74¢ $20 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $21 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $21 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $21 46h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $21 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $21 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $21 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.84 · official $97.06 · 66 history records