Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28a2…9dae crypto 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$733 (-3%) realized −$712 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%110W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$191
14 days+$191
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$898
sports 3% +$28
culture 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +49.2% +35.0% 73% 64% +18.4%
≤30d 11 +49.2% +35.0% 73% 64% +18.4%
≤90d 14 +25.6% +13.6% 64% 57% -10.7%
all 216 +5.3% -4.7% 51% 48% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 48% -12.2%
10% -13.9% 41% -20.6%
15% -22.2% 33% -28.3%
20% -29.8% 26% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$70 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$712
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses110 / 106
Open positions2
Markets (closed)216 / 218
History coverage123d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 38¢ 48¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $50 $4 −$46 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $155 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$111 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$165 +390%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$22 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 21 $132 −$127 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 21 $330 −$134 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 21 $314 +$53 +17%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 18 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $29 −$25 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 15 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 15 $17 −$13 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 15 $28 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 15 $100 −$90 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 15 $154 −$99 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 15 $170 −$167 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 15 $164 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 15 $165 −$100 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 15 $156 +$112 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 15 $63 −$53 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 15 $146 +$166 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 15 $300 −$248 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 15 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 15 $129 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 15 $100 +$329 +329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 15 $120 +$81 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 15 $87 +$33 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 15 $132 +$55 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 15 $100 +$132 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 15 $50 +$102 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 15 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 15 $173 +$91 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Mar 15 $268 +$39 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6AM ET Mar 15 $48 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 15 $4 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 15 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 15 $35 −$31 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $53 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $146 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $67 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $55 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $38 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $31 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $164 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $132 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $139 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $277 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $190 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $0 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $194 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.27 · official $183.12 · 477 history records