Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28a1…ff5f crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$97 (-11%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$49
other 29% −$20
sports 17% −$56
politics 9% −$1
crypto 7% +$42
tech 6% $0
economics 1% −$13
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.6% +5.5% 50% 50% +2.6%
≤30d 6 +16.6% +5.5% 50% 50% +2.6%
≤90d 37 -58.2% -62.2% 22% 14% -28.5%
all 47 +6.6% -3.5% 26% 17% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 17% -19.9%
10% -12.8% 13% -27.6%
15% -21.2% 11% -34.6%
20% -28.9% 9% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +79% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage262d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$7 +47%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jun 12 $81 +$9 +12%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $80 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 13 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Apr 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 10? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 10? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 10? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $126,000 on October 10? Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana dip to $200 September 29-October 5? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 10? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,800 on October 10? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 10? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,700 on October 9? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on October 10? Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 10? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 September 29-October 5? Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Apr 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 9? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $50 −$50 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $115 −$12 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 10? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $20 +$9 +43%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 4? Apr 04 $10 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 31 $100 +$12 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 17 $10 −$4 -40%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 17 $23 −$17 -74%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? Jan 19 $10 +$2 +25%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $1 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $20 −$2 -10%
Will SpaceX rescue the stranded Chinese astronauts? Nov 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 05 $5 +$38 +751%
Will the price of Solana be between $200 and $210 on October 1? Oct 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on October 1? Oct 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana dip to $190 in September? Oct 01 $3 +$61 +2028%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 1h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 23h
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 30h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 30h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 31h
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 32h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 33h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $11 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $11 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $81 47d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $80 63d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 99¢ $80 63d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 86¢ $63 63d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No 0¢ $0 67d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 61¢ $10 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 97¢ $50 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 88¢ $50 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 71d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $103 71d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 71d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 4¢ $5 71d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 17¢ $10 72d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $20 72d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 4? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 72d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 4? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.64 · official $14.64 (match) · 116 history records