Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28a1…0445 crypto 68 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (421 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,095 (-12%) realized −$26,095 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%30W / 38L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,077per market
Trades / day421.0pace
Fees−$457est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$38,071
sports 20% +$7,975
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (421 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -17.3% -25.2% 44% 44% -22.7%
≤30d 68 -17.3% -25.2% 44% 44% -22.7%
≤90d 68 -17.3% -25.2% 44% 44% -22.7%
all 68 -17.3% -25.2% 44% 44% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover421.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 44% -22.7%
10% -32.4% 44% -30.1%
15% ← realistic here -38.9% 43% -36.8%
20% -44.9% 38% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$3,619) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,568 vs −$2,819 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26,095
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses30 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$457
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,077
Trades / day421.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $8,267 +$7,884 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $517 −$500 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $7,109 −$7,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $3,106 −$3,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $82 +$29 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $3,100 −$3,100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $1,035 +$963 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $1,550 +$1,331 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $2,583 −$2,583 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $4,661 −$4,661 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $3,105 +$2,883 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $1,654 −$1,600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $520 +$678 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $2,607 +$3,828 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $1,553 −$1,500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $2,585 +$2,275 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $2,069 +$1,857 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $2,585 +$2,270 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $3,614 +$2,951 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $4,137 −$4,137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $3,619 −$3,619 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $1,655 +$1,482 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $4,136 −$4,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $2,173 −$2,100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $2,584 −$2,500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $2,092 −$2,092 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $2,581 +$2,102 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $3,099 +$2,562 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $2,572 −$2,046 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $1,345 −$1,345 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $3,617 +$3,084 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $3,614 +$2,921 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $2,584 −$2,500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $2,068 −$2,068 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $2,050 +$1,277 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $2,588 −$2,500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $3,099 −$3,099 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $6,821 +$5,922 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $4,149 −$4,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $1,033 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $2,065 −$2,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $2,586 +$2,378 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $1,551 +$1,359 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $1,033 +$869 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $2,067 +$1,782 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $2,590 −$2,500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $5,696 −$5,696 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $3,621 −$3,500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $523 +$975 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $290 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $227 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $1,522 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1,015 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $124 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $531 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $2,030 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $7,109 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $518 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $519 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $520 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $517 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $516 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $517 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $82 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $516 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $516 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $516 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $475 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $42 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $158 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $359 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $238 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $129 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $152 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $517 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $518 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 552 history records