Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
28 0x289f…d014 crypto 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,261 (+11%) realized +$942 · open +$319
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%61W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$977now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$119
14 days−$155
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$83
other 18% +$238
sports 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -9.1% -17.7% 63% 44% -8.1%
≤30d 104 -3.2% -12.5% 59% 41% -8.3%
≤90d 104 -3.2% -12.5% 59% 41% -8.3%
all 104 -3.2% -12.5% 59% 41% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 41% -8.3%
10% -20.8% 25% -17.1%
15% -28.5% 14% -25.1%
20% -35.5% 9% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$29 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$977
Realized+$942
Unrealized+$319
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses61 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage15d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $658 $977 +$319 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $207 +$7 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$54 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$93 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$76 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$45 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$98 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$51 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $104 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $208 −$45 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $322 +$83 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $107 +$39 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $623 −$75 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$10 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $104 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$41 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $310 −$297 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $216 +$29 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $311 −$58 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $514 +$66 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $539 +$56 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $217 +$37 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $310 +$45 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $310 +$54 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$13 +13%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $114 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $114 +$32 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $107 −$2 -2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$17 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $214 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $207 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $13 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $130 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $49 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $117 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $28 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $127 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $149 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $103 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $976.98 · official $976.98 (match) · 279 history records