trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -19.2% | -26.9% | 25% | 25% | -35.1% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -32.7% | -39.1% | 38% | 12% | -37.5% |
| ≤90d | 43 | -10.5% | -19.0% | 58% | 33% | -13.2% |
| all | 162 | -3.0% | -12.2% | 66% | 48% | -12.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.2% | 48% | -12.7% |
| 10% | -20.6% | 37% | -21.1% |
| 15% | -28.3% | 27% | -28.7% |
| 20% | -35.3% | 19% | -35.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 95¢ | 92¢ | $313 | $302 | −$10 (-3%) |
| Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | $15 | $20 | +$5 (+33%) |
| Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 83¢ | 86¢ | $8 | $8 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $6 | $6 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 69¢ | 96¢ | $4 | $6 | +$2 (+39%) |
| Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 96¢ | 90¢ | $6 | $5 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 26 | $615 | −$15 | -2% |
| Spread: Japan (-1.5) | Jun 26 | $554 | +$143 | +26% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 25 | $1,276 | −$1,262 | -99% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 25 | $1,591 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Jun 15 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) | Jun 14 | $212 | +$18 | +8% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $44 | −$44 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 30 | $235 | −$232 | -99% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | May 22 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | May 22 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | May 22 | $4 | +$1 | +16% |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | May 22 | $4 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | May 22 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? | May 22 | $5 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? | May 22 | $10 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Czechia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | May 22 | $2,000 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | May 13 | $1,000 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | May 13 | $4 | +$1 | +17% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 13 | $15 | +$4 | +26% |
| Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 13 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | May 03 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | Apr 26 | $800 | −$791 | -99% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 26 | $2,994 | −$3 | -0% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Apr 24 | $360 | +$140 | +39% |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Apr 15 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 219.5 | Apr 15 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m | Apr 15 | $5,643 | −$6 | -0% |
| Hornets vs. Knicks | Apr 15 | $26 | +$4 | +16% |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Apr 15 | $690 | +$310 | +45% |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 10 | $2,742 | −$3 | -0% |
| Spread: Pistons (-18.5) | Apr 10 | $100 | +$90 | +90% |
| Thunder vs. Clippers | Apr 10 | $700 | +$300 | +43% |
| Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 08 | $2,300 | −$8 | -0% |
| Spread: Hornets (-16.5) | Apr 03 | $60 | −$59 | -99% |
| Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 230.5 | Apr 01 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Pacers vs. Bulls | Apr 01 | $192 | −$190 | -99% |
| Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5 | Apr 01 | $6 | +$4 | +82% |
| Timberwolves vs. Mavericks | Apr 01 | $21 | +$9 | +40% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 31 | $2,386 | $0 | -0% |
| 76ers vs. Heat | Mar 30 | $11 | −$11 | -99% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | Mar 30 | $1,594 | +$2 | +0% |
| Clippers vs. Bucks | Mar 30 | $176 | +$24 | +14% |
| Pelicans vs. Raptors | Mar 28 | $1,275 | +$425 | +33% |
| Spread: Knicks (-1.5) | Mar 27 | $17 | +$13 | +79% |
| Pelicans vs. Pistons | Mar 27 | $195 | +$105 | +54% |
| Raptors vs. Clippers | Mar 26 | $1,098 | +$702 | +64% |
| Thunder vs. Celtics | Mar 25 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Bulls | Mar 23 | $825 | −$825 | -100% |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 23 | $78 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Mar 23 | $97 | +$3 | +3% |