Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2897…a659 politics 181 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$916 (+0%) realized +$916 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%36W / 145L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$1,604per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$22
14 days−$119
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$203
other 27% −$201
sports 10% +$1,272
economics 5% −$10
culture 3% −$10
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 54 +2.2% -7.5% 11% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 124 -5.6% -14.6% 8% 5% -9.4%
all 181 +2.1% -7.6% 20% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 10% -9.3%
10% -16.5% 10% -17.9%
15% -24.5% 9% -25.9%
20% -31.9% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,199) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$8 · ×6.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$916
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses36 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 181
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,604
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $3,153 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $2,408 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $377 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $485 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,199 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,819 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,481 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $1,383 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $166 $0 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $3,469 −$5 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $2,030 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,413 −$7 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,655 −$4 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,830 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $7,285 −$11 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $45 +$72 +158%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,466 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,553 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,648 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $35 +$54 +152%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $66 +$70 +105%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $7,746 −$10 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $534 +$1 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,070 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $2,556 −$3 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $1,573 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $2,522 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,987 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $3,205 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $756 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,155 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,251 −$2 -0%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,763 −$5 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $61 +$67 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $340 20m
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $340 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $415 18h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $415 20h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $577 22h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $578 23h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $376 26h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $377 28h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $375 42h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $376 44h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $485 44h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $485 46h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 47h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,471 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,473 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,341 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,343 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,382 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,383 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,255 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,257 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,063 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,064 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,076 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,233 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,235 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,046 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,048 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 636 history records