Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
28 0x2895…7db8 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-5%) realized −$15 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$19
world 4% $0
sports 3% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +63.4% +47.9% 75% 75% -5.0%
≤30d 4 +63.4% +47.9% 75% 75% -5.0%
≤90d 4 +63.4% +47.9% 75% 75% -5.0%
all 4 +63.4% +47.9% 75% 75% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.9% 75% -5.0%
10% +33.7% 75% -14.1%
15% +20.8% 50% -22.4%
20% +9.0% 50% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$79 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $92 +$58 +63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $79 −$79 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $16 +$5 +32%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +258%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $92 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 32h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 36h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 36h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.22 · official $156.22 (match) · 19 history records