Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
28 0x2894…33c5 crypto 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+3%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%43W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$13
14 days−$28
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$37
finance 29% −$69
other 4% +$53
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -15.6% -23.6% 29% 29% +3.5%
≤30d 62 -12.8% -21.1% 37% 37% -2.2%
≤90d 118 -12.3% -20.6% 36% 34% -7.8%
all 118 -12.3% -20.6% 36% 34% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 34% -7.8%
10% -28.2% 34% -16.6%
15% -35.2% 33% -24.7%
20% -41.5% 31% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses43 / 75
Open positions5
Markets (closed)118 / 123
History coverage59d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$32 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$5 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6AM ET Jun 05 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$17 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 30¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 34¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 18¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.83 · official $5.83 (match) · 206 history records