Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2892…71dd sports 903 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,946 (-31%) realized −$11,087 · open +$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%293W / 513L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$452est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 37% −$2,374
sports 35% −$211
other 17% −$88
world 5% +$262
politics 3% −$164
tech 1% −$20
crypto 1% +$15
weather 0% −$11
finance 0% −$26
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +24.7% +12.8% 42% 39% -16.5%
≤30d 257 +7.8% -2.5% 41% 37% +0.6%
≤90d 806 +1.5% -8.2% 36% 33% -17.2%
all 806 +1.5% -8.2% 36% 33% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 33% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 29% -25.1%
15% -25.0% 26% -32.4%
20% -32.3% 23% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$19 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$2,237
Realized−$11,087
Unrealized+$141
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses293 / 513
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$452
Open positions90
Markets (closed)806 / 903
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 90 History 806 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $322 $335 +$12 (+4%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 31¢ 41¢ $133 $177 +$44 (+33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Kane 50¢ 55¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+10%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 36¢ 64¢ $36 $64 +$28 (+78%)
Will The Social Reckoning get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 3¢ 37¢ $5 $61 +$56 (+1114%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $40 $53 +$13 (+32%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-4%)
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $62 $49 −$13 (-21%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+6%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+36%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 60¢ 61¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+10%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 47¢ 44¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Dembele 51¢ 46¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $34 $26 −$8 (-22%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marcus Rashford score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 46¢ $34 $24 −$10 (-30%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+43%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 40¢ 62¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $432 +$45 +10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $292 −$43 -15%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $128 −$12 -9%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $14 −$4 -30%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $24 −$13 -57%
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$9 -44%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Jun 16 $17 −$7 -39%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $20 −$8 -40%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -89%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 16 $9 −$5 -54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Steve Schirippa attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 16 $31 −$13 -43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $914 −$193 -21%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 16 $129 −$124 -96%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 8m
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 8m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 10m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $46 24m
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 29m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $154 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $253 36m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $223 36m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $69 38m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $10 54m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 18¢ $5 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 1h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $25 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $6 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 1h
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 3¢ $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 3h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $4 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,236.98 · official $2,240.73 (match) · 3500 history records