Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
28 0x2890…f565 other 7 markets active 12h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+5%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$8
crypto 12% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.1% -0.4% 75% 50% -0.4%
≤30d 4 +10.1% -0.4% 75% 50% -0.4%
≤90d 4 +10.1% -0.4% 75% 50% -0.4%
all 4 +10.1% -0.4% 75% 50% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 50% -0.4%
10% -9.9% 50% -9.9%
15% -18.6% 50% -18.6%
20% -26.6% 25% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$17 -66%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.76 · official $99.76 (match) · 12 history records