Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

28 0x2890…3d52 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$6 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-33.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-26.1%	-33.1%	50%	50%	-14.6%
≤30d	2	-26.1%	-33.1%	50%	50%	-14.6%
≤90d	2	-26.1%	-33.1%	50%	50%	-14.6%
all	2	-26.1%	-33.1%	50%	50%	-14.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-33.1%	50%	-14.6%
10%	-39.5%	50%	-22.8%
15%	-45.4%	50%	-30.2%
20%	-50.7%	0%	-37.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -26% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$40 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.84 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$89

Realized−$6

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 6

History coverage3d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$40	$40	+$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	2¢	3¢	$10	$13	+$3 (+27%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	3¢	2¢	$10	$7	−$3 (-33%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$71	+$34	+48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$41	−$40	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$30	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$40	1h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	3¢	$10	2d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	2¢	$10	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$40	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$41	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.47 · official $89.68 (match) · 8 history records