Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:11:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
28 0x288c…a092 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$61 (+9%) realized +$18 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$60
other 29% +$2
crypto 15% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+62.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +79.4% +62.3% 28% 28% +1.5%
≤30d 18 +79.4% +62.3% 28% 28% +1.5%
≤90d 18 +79.4% +62.3% 28% 28% +1.5%
all 18 +79.4% +62.3% 28% 28% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +62.3% 28% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here +46.8% 28% -8.2%
15% +32.6% 28% -17.0%
20% +19.6% 22% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late +215% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$13 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 84¢ $41 $60 +$19 (+46%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 26¢ $17 $43 +$26 (+155%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 44¢ 72¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+62%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 57¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $26 −$17 -66%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 28 $17 −$3 -17%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 28 $44 −$3 -6%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $60 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$25 +88%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $30 −$2 -8%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $23 −$2 -8%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $27 +$42 +152%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $6 +$114 +1845%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $20 −$19 -97%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 27 $22 −$22 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $25 +$37 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$9 -94%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $46 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $24 +$10 +44%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $25 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $42 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 36h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 36h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $28 36h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 36h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 42¢ $26 36h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $27 36h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $29 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $28 39h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 44¢ $28 39h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 40h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $29 40h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 40h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $27 41h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 41h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $29 43h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 57¢ $28 43h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 28¢ $22 43h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 41¢ $16 43h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 43h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $29 43h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $30 43h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $17 43h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 43h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $23 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.43 · official $168.01 (match) · 45 history records