Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2889…8fc0 weather 596 markets active 0h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$99 (-6%) realized −$101 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate91%525W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$7
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$115
weather 25% +$3
other 3% +$2
finance 3% +$7
world 1% +$3
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 +3.3% -6.6% 94% 64% -6.5%
≤30d 378 -0.3% -9.8% 91% 58% -8.7%
≤90d 378 -0.3% -9.8% 91% 58% -8.7%
all 578 -0.1% -9.6% 91% 45% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 45% -15.1%
10% -18.3% 1% -23.2%
15% -26.2% 1% -30.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses525 / 53
Open positions18
Markets (closed)578 / 596
History coverage201d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 578 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 84¢ 97¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Yes 90¢ 83¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Yes 90¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Yes 95¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Yes 90¢ 67¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Yes 92¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.47 · official $39.87 · 1229 history records