Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2884…d0c3 world 315 markets active 1h ago coverage 381d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 380d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,239 (+3%) realized +$2,198 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate78%194W / 55L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$10,889now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 381d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$5,471
other 13% +$402
tech 8% −$73
culture 6% +$123
politics 5% +$223
crypto 5% +$155
sports 2% −$347
economics 0% +$102
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +13.2% +2.4% 80% 20% -8.9%
≤30d 32 +11.2% +0.6% 81% 19% -8.3%
≤90d 39 +3.4% -6.5% 72% 18% -9.0%
all 249 +10.1% -0.4% 78% 26% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 26% -4.9%
10% -9.9% 15% -14.0%
15% -18.6% 9% -22.3%
20% -26.6% 6% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$81 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$10,889
Realized+$2,198
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses194 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions66
Markets (closed)249 / 315
History coverage381d ⚠
Avg bet$241
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 66 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $4,967 $4,970 +$4 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,524 $1,532 +$8 (+1%)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? No 88¢ 92¢ $1,022 $1,058 +$36 (+3%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 44¢ 44¢ $772 $782 +$10 (+1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 82¢ 89¢ $322 $351 +$29 (+9%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $324 $323 −$1 (-0%)
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $263 $258 −$5 (-2%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 69¢ 67¢ $261 $252 −$9 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $146 $142 −$4 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 86¢ $89 $97 +$7 (+8%)
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 78¢ $84 $91 +$7 (+9%)
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No 85¢ 81¢ $94 $90 −$4 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes 54¢ 46¢ $73 $62 −$11 (-15%)
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? No 88¢ 85¢ $62 $60 −$2 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? No 58¢ 60¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? No 63¢ 62¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? No 77¢ 77¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? No 76¢ 66¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 16 $127 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 16 $282 −$33 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $119 +$8 +6%
Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Jun 16 $88 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 16 $33 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $23 −$5 -22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? Jun 15 $55 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $64 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 14 $99 +$2 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $9 +$24 +255%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $250 −$8 -3%
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 14 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $197 +$9 +4%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $81 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $74 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $26 +$2 +7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +14%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $435 +$14 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 09 $98 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $181 +$5 +3%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 14 $27 +$22 +81%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 13 $205 −$2 -1%
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Mar 21 $40 −$3 -7%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Mar 21 $715 +$6 +1%
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31? Mar 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jan 23 $22 +$10 +44%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $17 +$1 +5%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Jan 01 $28 +$2 +9%
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31? Jan 01 $34 −$24 -71%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jan 01 $9 +$1 +9%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jan 01 $18 +$2 +13%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jan 01 $24 +$6 +25%
Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? Jan 01 $148 +$5 +3%
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31? Jan 01 $76 +$40 +53%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 01 $1,001 +$22 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $203 +$36 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 77¢ $8 32m
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 33m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 68¢ $6 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 68¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $66 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $54 1h
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY No 16¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 93¢ $9 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2h
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY No 16¢ $2 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 20¢ $2 2h
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 93¢ $8 5h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY No 69¢ $6 5h
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? BUY No 83¢ $15 6h
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 6h
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? SELL No 94¢ $9 6h
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? SELL No 57¢ $7 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 13¢ $1 7h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 50¢ $0 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 10¢ $1 8h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 50¢ $2 8h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 50¢ $1 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 13¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,888.93 · official $10,887.19 (match) · 3500 history records