Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x2883…f3dd other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$22 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$12
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$9
politics 27% −$22
economics 6% −$2
sports 4% +$35
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.2% +14.2% 25% 25% -3.9%
≤30d 18 +5.7% -4.3% 11% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 117 +4.5% -5.4% 11% 9% -9.5%
all 117 +4.5% -5.4% 11% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 9% -9.5%
10% -14.5% 9% -18.1%
15% -22.7% 9% -26.0%
20% -30.3% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage94d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 +$13 +105%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $291 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $324 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $120 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $283 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $64 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $789 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $256 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $264 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $272 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 07 $271 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $285 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $269 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $265 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $275 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $274 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $276 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $288 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $270 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $275 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $261 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $757 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 9h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $61 13h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $47 38h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $12 39h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $47 42h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $107 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $61 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $61 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 9d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 9d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $62 10d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $62 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 15d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $43 16d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $43 16d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 17d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 18d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 19d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 20d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $64 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.86 · official $216.86 (match) · 347 history records