trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | $20,085 | $13,529 | −$6,556 (-33%) |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | Yes | 27¢ | 16¢ | $6,246 | $3,640 | −$2,606 (-42%) |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | Yes | 54¢ | 10¢ | $3,610 | $666 | −$2,944 (-82%) |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 8¢ | $1,272 | $568 | −$704 (-55%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $22 | $0 | −$22 (-100%) |
| Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) | Manchester City FC | 48¢ | 0¢ | $147 | $0 | −$147 (-100%) |
| Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) | Manchester City FC | 70¢ | 0¢ | $2,180 | $0 | −$2,180 (-100%) |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $193 | $0 | −$193 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $15,294 | −$3,516 | -23% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | May 08 | $22 | −$22 | -96% |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | May 08 | $421 | −$398 | -95% |
| Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) | Apr 22 | $149 | −$147 | -98% |
| Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) | Apr 22 | $2,200 | −$2,180 | -99% |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Apr 22 | $10,489 | −$9,595 | -92% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | Mar 09 | $193 | −$193 | -100% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? | Mar 05 | $72 | −$72 | -100% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? | Mar 03 | $1,500 | +$672 | +45% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? | Mar 01 | $1,145 | −$717 | -63% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Mar 01 | $3,619 | +$3,448 | +95% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 28 | $4,155 | +$2,046 | +49% |
| US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | Feb 27 | $223 | −$15 | -7% |
| Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) | Feb 27 | $700 | −$700 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 2 | Feb 27 | $207 | −$207 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 25? | Feb 26 | $39 | −$39 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? | Feb 26 | $1,005 | +$698 | +70% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET | Feb 25 | $109 | −$109 | -100% |
| Will Inter Milan advance to the round of 16? | Feb 25 | $3,292 | −$3,292 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 25? | Feb 25 | $1,296 | +$7,478 | +577% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | -23.0% | -30.3% | 0% | 0% | -30.3% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -84.8% | -86.3% | 0% | 0% | -59.8% |
| all | 20 | -22.1% | -29.5% | 25% | 25% | -23.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -29.5% | 25% | -23.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -36.3% | 25% | -30.4% |
| 15% | -42.4% | 25% | -37.1% |
| 20% | -48.1% | 15% | -43.3% |