Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2880…9e5a crypto 1252 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$188 (-3%) realized −$288 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate75%935W / 317L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$288
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 378 -0.5% -10.0% 88% 30% -9.5%
≤30d 591 -8.0% -16.8% 79% 31% -17.6%
≤90d 1204 -5.2% -14.2% 74% 39% -16.8%
all 1252 -3.5% -12.7% 75% 40% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 40% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 23% -22.1%
15% -28.7% 14% -29.7%
20% -35.7% 9% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$288
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses935 / 317
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1252 / 1252
History coverage97d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1252 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2814 history records