Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:31:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2880…d888 crypto 317 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,036 (-4%) realized −$991 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%104W / 203L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$214
7 days+$297
14 days+$297
30 days+$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$1,292
other 6% −$377
sports 3% −$47
world 1% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +127.7% +106.0% 41% 41% +23.1%
≤30d 18 +115.1% +94.6% 39% 39% +18.1%
≤90d 307 -13.9% -22.1% 34% 28% -15.9%
all 307 -13.9% -22.1% 34% 28% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 28% -15.9%
10% -29.5% 24% -24.0%
15% -36.4% 20% -31.3%
20% -42.6% 18% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$37 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$332
Realized−$991
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses104 / 203
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions7
Markets (closed)307 / 317
History coverage70d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $321 $299 −$21 (-7%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists Yes 17¢ 12¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Vitinha win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-64%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$75 +93%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$49 +101%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $80 −$78 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $82 +$164 +201%
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $47 −$14 -31%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $254 −$5 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp Jun 16 $4 +$68 +1657%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay en Jun 16 $10 +$49 +479%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $33 +$134 +408%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $33 −$33 -98%
Will Jeremie Frimpong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -69%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 29 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 20 $41 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 20 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 20 $30 −$9 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 20 $40 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 20 $35 −$33 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 20 $63 −$59 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 20 $80 −$38 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 20 $113 −$36 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 20 $76 −$34 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 20 $139 −$57 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 20 $67 +$72 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$9 -94%
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $193 −$114 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 17 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 17 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 17 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 17 $13 +$22 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -93%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 17 $11 +$8 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 17 $13 −$1 -7%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5 Apr 17 $31 −$18 -60%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $52 −$51 -98%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score Apr 16 $10 +$32 +319%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 15 $18 −$9 -52%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 15 $16 +$17 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 25¢ $29 24m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 2h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $81 3h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 37¢ $34 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 23h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $46 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $46 24h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $246 24h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $31 25h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $51 25h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 11¢ $32 25h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $41 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY 20¢ $9 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $248 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $246 36h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp SELL 98¢ $72 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 37¢ $38 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay en SELL 97¢ $59 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay en BUY 16¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp BUY 5¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $167 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $22 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $33 4d
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.88 · official $359.89 · 1238 history records