Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
28 0x287f…da40 crypto 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-2%) realized −$14 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate69%52W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$23
14 days−$52
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$23
tech 22% −$79
other 4% −$44
sports 3% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +10.3% -0.2% 78% 52% -5.0%
≤30d 75 -1.5% -10.8% 69% 52% -12.8%
≤90d 75 -1.5% -10.8% 69% 52% -12.8%
all 75 -1.5% -10.8% 69% 52% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 52% -12.8%
10% -19.4% 29% -21.2%
15% -27.2% 19% -28.8%
20% -34.3% 17% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$23 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses52 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage30d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? Down 85¢ 100¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+17%)
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? Up 91¢ 2¢ $36 $1 −$35 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$8 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$6 +25%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$3 +14%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$1 -6%
Solana Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$9 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$4 +23%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$5 +34%
BNB Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $35 −$18 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -69%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$3 +13%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +337%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$2 +10%
XRP Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $27 −$26 -97%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $137 −$137 -100%
Solana Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $117 +$19 +16%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $129 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $112 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $99 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$5 +76%
Solana Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $91 +$15 +16%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $75 +$16 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $68 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +66%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $54 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $88 +$17 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $85 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 26 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 26 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 26 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 26 $8 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 26 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 23 $54 −$26 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 85¢ $35 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 91¢ $13 2h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 91¢ $23 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 78¢ $29 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $31 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 17h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 100¢ $31 22h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 87¢ $24 27h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 91¢ $24 27h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 79¢ $25 27h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 96¢ $25 27h
Solana Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 65¢ $18 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 80¢ $19 33h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 74¢ $16 2d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $15 2d
BNB Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 100¢ $31 2d
BNB Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 96¢ $30 2d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $17 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 79¢ $17 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $35 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 98¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 88¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 87¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 95¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.42 · official $40.95 (match) · 184 history records