Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
28 0x287f…5ec5 crypto 1818 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$138 (-5%) realized −$140 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate71%1285W / 531L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day64.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$138
weather 7% +$6
other 2% −$7
finance 1% −$2
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 408 -7.7% -16.4% 69% 67% -15.7%
≤30d 1763 -6.0% -14.9% 71% 64% -14.6%
≤90d 1816 -6.0% -15.0% 71% 63% -14.7%
all 1816 -6.0% -15.0% 71% 63% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 63% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 43% -22.8%
15% -30.5% 12% -30.3%
20% -37.3% 5% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1285 / 531
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1816 / 1818
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day64.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1816 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+47%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 77¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 216 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 92¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.23 · official $6.37 (match) · 3500 history records