Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:02:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x287d…38fe sports 490 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,120 (-10%) realized −$9,241 · open +$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%139W / 348L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$2,318est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$886now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,517
7 days−$3,006
14 days−$9,439
30 days−$4,841
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$11,196
other 6% +$243
crypto 1% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -15.0% -23.1% 26% 24% -25.3%
≤30d 239 -8.2% -16.9% 29% 28% -20.2%
≤90d 487 -5.7% -14.7% 29% 28% -20.8%
all 487 -5.7% -14.7% 29% 28% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 28% -20.8%
10% -22.9% 26% -28.4%
15% -30.3% 26% -35.3%
20% -37.2% 25% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$165 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$886
Realized−$9,241
Unrealized+$121
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses139 / 348
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$2,318
Open positions3
Markets (closed)487 / 490
History coverage60d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 487 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Max Houkes Max Houkes 14¢ 26¢ $245 $455 +$210 (+86%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin Lorenzo Giustino 16¢ 16¢ $245 $239 −$6 (-2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien Hugo Dellien 11¢ 8¢ $274 $191 −$83 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $126 +$156 +124%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $145 +$327 +226%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $125 +$565 +451%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $168 −$58 -35%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 21 $251 +$518 +207%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 21 $251 −$251 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 21 $250 +$590 +236%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 21 $507 −$16 -3%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $251 −$251 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 21 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 21 $126 −$126 -100%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 21 $124 −$124 -100%
ITF Irvine: Spencer Johnson vs Neo Niedner Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 21 $350 −$175 -50%
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Jun 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 21 $88 −$88 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigur Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 21 $132 −$132 -100%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 21 $123 −$123 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 21 $116 −$116 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 21 $106 −$106 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Keshav Chopra Jun 21 $163 −$163 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 21 $123 −$123 -100%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 21 $124 −$124 -100%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche Jun 21 $125 −$125 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 21 $123 −$123 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 21 $126 −$126 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 21 $124 −$124 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Kaylan Bigun vs Gus Grumet Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 21 $125 −$125 -100%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 21 $126 −$126 -100%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 21 $252 −$252 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 21 $193 −$193 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 21 $183 −$183 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $143 −$143 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 21 $251 −$251 -100%
ITF Irvine: Claire Hill vs Maria Aytoyan Jun 21 $200 −$200 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 21 $419 −$419 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 21 $201 −$201 -100%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 21 $295 −$295 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 21 $250 −$250 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $267 −$267 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin BUY Lorenzo Giustino 16¢ $251 21m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Max Houkes BUY Max Houkes 14¢ $251 57m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien BUY Hugo Dellien 11¢ $281 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Clara Tauson 85¢ $282 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 37¢ $126 2h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 30¢ $145 11h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL Washington Mystics 96¢ $691 11h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Washington Mystics 17¢ $125 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $76 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $124 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 11¢ $109 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 16¢ $168 13h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 96¢ $0 13h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 97¢ $477 13h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 97¢ $291 13h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) SELL Minnesota Twins 96¢ $2 14h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) SELL Minnesota Twins 96¢ $839 14h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Magdalena Frech 29¢ $0 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $885.56 · official $885.56 (match) · 1264 history records