Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:32:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x287c…ac6b crypto 432 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$233 (-4%) realized −$7 · open −$226
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%185W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$264
other 11% −$227
sports 6% −$25
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 429 -4.7% -13.8% 43% 34% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 34% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 27% -22.2%
15% -29.5% 17% -29.7%
20% -36.5% 12% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$226
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses185 / 244
Open positions3
Markets (closed)429 / 432
History coverage131d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 429 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $127 $87 −$40 (-32%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $116 $57 −$59 (-51%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $127 $1 −$126 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 22 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Feb 22 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 22 $1 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 22 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 22 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 22 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 22 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 22 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 22 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 22 $6 −$5 -79%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 22 $1 +$1 +101%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 22 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 22 $5 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 22 $32 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 22 $58 −$15 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 22 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 22 $19 −$3 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 22 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 22 $6 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 22 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 22 $15 −$2 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 22 $24 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 22 $24 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 22 $33 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 22 $47 −$13 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 22 $111 −$41 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 22 $4 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 22 $5 +$3 +59%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 22 $1 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 22 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 22 $4 −$2 -47%
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 22 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 22 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 22 $6 −$4 -64%
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 22 $2 +$1 +43%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 22 $4 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 22 $4 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $119 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $131 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 124d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 124d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 124d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 124d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.50 · official $144.50 (match) · 3355 history records