Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x287c…ab66 world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$3
other 26% +$5
sports 21% −$19
finance 1% $0
politics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 33 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 45 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 7% -9.9%
10% -22.7% 4% -18.5%
15% -30.2% 4% -26.4%
20% -37.0% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage527d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $163 +$8 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $110 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 01 $99 −$3 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $55 −$6 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $56 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $151 +$6 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $53 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $38 +$2 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $489 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $248 −$4 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $470 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $234 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $96 +$2 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $7 −$6 -86%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will Leon Draisaitl win the Hart Trophy? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Charlotte vs. Florida Atlantic Mar 04 $22 −$22 -100%
Hawks vs. Wizards Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid beat Atletico Madrid? Feb 09 $6 +$7 +108%
Will Trump inauguration be the most viewed ever? Feb 03 $6 $0 +8%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fox News Oval Office inter Feb 03 $8 +$1 +19%
Will the match between Qarabag and FCSB end in a draw? Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 22 $15 −$1 -10%
Senators vs. Red Wings Jan 09 $8 +$8 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $54 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $54 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $11 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $50 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $51 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $51 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $52 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.97 · official $26.71 (match) · 190 history records