Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x287c…0b0c other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$400 (-30%) realized −$400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$104
14 days−$104
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$274
tech 11% −$16
culture 8% −$39
politics 5% −$49
sports 3% −$18
crypto 3% −$12
world 3% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-50.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -22.0% -29.4% 0% 0% -29.4%
≤30d 2 -19.9% -27.5% 0% 0% -28.4%
≤90d 10 -64.5% -67.9% 0% 0% -39.3%
all 29 -45.0% -50.2% 7% 7% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.2% 7% -39.5%
10% -55.0% 3% -45.3%
15% -59.4% 0% -50.6%
20% -63.3% 0% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$17 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage134d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 26 $475 −$104 -22%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 09 $174 −$31 -18%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 19 $25 −$4 -15%
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 21 $53 −$33 -63%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? Apr 21 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Apr 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the US strike Mexico next? Apr 21 $73 −$60 -83%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 30 $11 −$5 -43%
Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 14 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $19 −$3 -13%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $19 −$3 -13%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 04 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 3-9? Mar 03 $3 −$1 -30%
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by Ma Mar 03 $3 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 03 $7 −$4 -53%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Mar 01 $12 −$3 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 16 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 16 $8 −$6 -73%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 16, 2026? Feb 16 $20 −$12 -59%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $150 −$16 -10%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 12, 2026? Feb 12 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 12 $21 +$3 +17%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during EPA announcement? Feb 12 $64 −$43 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 12 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs Namibia (Game 1) Feb 12 $29 −$15 -50%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15? Feb 12 $40 −$22 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $88 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $99 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $282 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $29 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $122 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $119 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $104 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $118 17d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $106 18d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $35 18d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $21 38d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 38d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $25 64d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $32 66d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nation? BUY No 3¢ $14 86d
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 88d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 88d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 89d
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 104d
Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awa SELL Yes 6¢ $12 104d
Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 6¢ $12 104d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 104d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 104d
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 104d
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 104d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 104d
Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awa SELL Yes 5¢ $5 104d
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records