Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x287b…a613 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$2
world 16% $0
politics 11% +$2
sports 10% −$1
tech 9% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 5 -18.6% -26.4% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 -18.6% -26.4% 40% 0% -9.3%
all 37 -2.6% -11.9% 46% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 5% -8.8%
10% -20.3% 3% -17.5%
15% -28.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -35.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage465d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $1 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $2 $0 -15%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $6 $0 +7%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 06 $1 $0 -35%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files? May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday? May 08 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $10 $0 -1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $8 +$2 +27%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 24 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Apr 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 21 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 20 $1 $0 -15%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 19 $7 −$1 -12%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 28 $12 −$1 -8%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $12 $0 +0%
India wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 17 $12 $0 +2%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $2 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $25 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $6 15h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $42 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $42 24d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 62¢ $7 357d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? SELL No 95¢ $6 358d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? BUY No 94¢ $6 374d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship SELL No 98¢ $6 374d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship BUY No 98¢ $6 376d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 93¢ $5 376d
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend SELL Yes 2¢ $0 376d
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend SELL Yes 2¢ $0 376d
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend SELL Yes 2¢ $0 376d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 93¢ $5 378d
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend BUY Yes 4¢ $0 378d
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend BUY Yes 4¢ $0 378d
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend BUY Yes 4¢ $0 378d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.01 · official $38.01 (match) · 97 history records