Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

28 0x287b…7694 sports 23 markets active 24h ago coverage 85d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,543 (-71%) realized −$1,543 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%11W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$94per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2

7 days+$8

14 days−$5

30 days+$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+4.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+69.3%	+53.2%	60%	60%	+48.6%
≤30d	18	+19.2%	+7.9%	50%	50%	-9.1%
≤90d	22	+15.7%	+4.7%	50%	50%	-75.3%
all	22	+15.7%	+4.7%	50%	50%	-75.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.7%	50%	-75.3%
10%	-5.3%	50%	-77.6%
15%	-14.5%	50%	-79.8%
20%	-22.9%	45%	-81.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late +13% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$167 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.16 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage

Net worth$41

Realized−$1,543

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses11 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage85d

Avg bet$94

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	99¢	99¢	$41	$41	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)	Jun 17	$2	+$4	+170%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	Jun 15	$2	+$5	+226%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5	Jun 14	$3	+$4	+150%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5	Jun 10	$2	−$2	-98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5	Jun 08	$7	−$7	-99%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)	Jun 05	$4	−$4	-100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5	Jun 03	$3	+$5	+150%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5	Jun 03	$4	+$2	+44%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)	May 29	$2	−$2	-100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	May 28	$7	+$5	+65%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5	May 28	$2	+$5	+291%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	May 28	$4	+$3	+73%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5	May 22	$4	−$4	-100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5	May 21	$4	−$4	-99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5	May 21	$2	+$2	+76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	May 19	$4	−$4	-100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	May 15	$7	−$7	-100%
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 234.5	Mar 25	$180	+$187	+104%
Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 240.5	Mar 24	$77	+$74	+96%
Thunder vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5	Mar 23	$1,798	−$1,798	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	29¢	$0	23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	29¢	$1	23h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	37¢	$2	2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals	BUY San Diego Padres	43¢	$4	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5	BUY Under	40¢	$3	4d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	BUY Hurricanes	30¢	$2	5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	BUY Hurricanes	30¢	$1	5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	22¢	$2	7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	57¢	$7	9d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)	BUY Golden Knights	29¢	$0	12d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)	BUY Golden Knights	29¢	$4	12d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)	BUY Golden Knights	29¢	$0	12d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5	BUY Under	69¢	$4	15d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	40¢	$1	17d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	40¢	$3	17d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)	BUY Minnesota Twins	24¢	$1	19d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)	BUY Minnesota Twins	24¢	$1	19d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	25¢	$2	22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	60¢	$7	22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	BUY Hurricanes	57¢	$4	24d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	55¢	$4	26d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5	BUY Over	34¢	$3	27d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5	BUY Over	34¢	$1	27d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	42¢	$1	29d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	42¢	$3	29d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	56¢	$2	32d
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	52¢	$7	33d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$41	35d
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 234.5	BUY Over	49¢	$180	85d
Thunder vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5	BUY Under	51¢	$743	86d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.98 · official $40.98 (match) · 80 history records