Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:34:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2876…1c10 crypto 215 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (292 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$42 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate87%187W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day292.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (292 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 42% -10.8%
≤30d 214 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 42% -10.8%
≤90d 214 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 42% -10.8%
all 214 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 42% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover292.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 42% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 2% -19.3%
15% -27.0% 1% -27.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$25 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses187 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 215
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day292.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 49¢ 34¢ $121 $82 −$39 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $434 +$34 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $189 −$119 -63%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$5 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $133 −$131 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$3 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $73 +$11 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $133 +$34 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $134 +$48 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $470 −$53 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $246 −$136 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $270 +$8 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $163 +$7 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $133 +$27 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$3 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $221 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $43 −$32 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $222 +$24 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $125 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $195 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $122 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $274 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $64 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $32 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $123 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $127 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $64 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $32 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $32 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $32 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $125 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $123 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $84 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $31 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $31 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $157 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.08 · official $123.73 · 505 history records