Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2876…2a1f crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$112 (+1%) realized +$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate76%26W / 8L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$476per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,092
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -12.3% -20.6% 76% 32% -21.2%
≤30d 34 -12.3% -20.6% 76% 32% -21.2%
≤90d 34 -12.3% -20.6% 76% 32% -21.2%
all 34 -12.3% -20.6% 76% 32% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 32% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 18% -28.8%
15% -35.2% 3% -35.6%
20% -41.5% 3% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$702) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$444 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses26 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$476
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $601 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $586 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $535 +$55 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $319 +$201 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $816 −$816 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $708 +$133 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $702 +$30 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $909 +$159 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $806 +$87 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $763 +$39 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $610 +$177 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $582 +$35 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $501 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $502 +$27 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $615 −$607 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $601 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $816 −$795 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $726 +$101 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $404 −$376 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$97 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $141 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $203 +$50 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $584 +$54 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $477 +$115 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $205 −$171 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $272 +$25 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $232 +$24 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $239 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $193 +$43 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $190 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$95 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $601 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $586 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $534 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $319 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $704 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $112 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $708 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $702 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,001 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $508 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $806 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $763 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $610 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $615 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $601 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $816 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $706 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records