Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x2875…9045 sports 64 markets active 5h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$117 (+1%) realized +$122 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%28W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$847
7 days+$635
14 days+$635
30 days+$635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$615
other 14% +$483
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +25.2% +13.2% 54% 54% +1.7%
≤30d 26 +25.2% +13.2% 54% 54% +1.7%
≤90d 28 +22.6% +10.9% 54% 54% +1.0%
all 62 -2.8% -12.1% 45% 45% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 45% -10.8%
10% -20.5% 44% -19.3%
15% -28.2% 44% -27.1%
20% -35.2% 42% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$138 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized+$122
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses28 / 34
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage152d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$137 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $405 +$251 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $610 −$600 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$75 +365%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$197 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $203 +$273 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$142 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$377 +124%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$205 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 +$126 +62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$175 +86%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$392 +383%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $254 +$289 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $203 +$251 +124%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 08 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 28 $112 +$88 +79%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $297 −$297 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 15 $212 −$212 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Witchcraft (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Mar 14 $153 −$45 -29%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 13 $206 −$11 -5%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 01 $194 +$192 +99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 01 $220 +$280 +127%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Feb 26 $56 −$36 -64%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 23 $299 +$191 +64%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 22 $199 −$199 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 22 $212 −$212 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 22 $210 −$210 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 20 $199 +$233 +117%
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 17 $136 −$136 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 16 $134 −$134 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 16 $132 +$137 +104%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Liquid (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs Feb 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 14 $76 +$40 +53%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Fnatic (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs Feb 14 $51 +$51 +100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 14 $50 +$4 +7%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 5h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $405 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $305 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $203 47h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $305 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $305 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $203 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $495 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $102 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $204 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $254 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.12 · official $195.12 (match) · 155 history records