Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

28 0x2874…018f sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$65 (+18%) realized +$65 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate61%14W / 9L

Drawdown80%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$11

7 days+$83

14 days+$83

30 days+$53

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+1.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+15.0%	+4.0%	62%	57%	+14.9%
≤30d	22	+9.7%	-0.7%	59%	55%	+4.7%
≤90d	23	+12.2%	+1.6%	61%	57%	+7.2%
all	23	+12.2%	+1.6%	61%	57%	+7.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.6%	57%	+7.2%
10%	-8.2%	52%	-3.1%
15%	-17.0%	48%	-12.4%
20%	-25.2%	39%	-21.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +12% → late +12% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$65

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)61%

Wins / losses14 / 9

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 23

History coverage53d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown80%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$30	+$10	+33%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$30	+$28	+92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$40	+$25	+63%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2	+$7	+333%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$25	−$25	-99%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5)	Jun 15	$10	+$15	+143%
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	Jun 14	$20	+$17	+82%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$1	$0	+45%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$50	+$3	+6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$20	+$12	+59%
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Jun 13	$10	+$12	+114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5	Jun 12	$20	+$7	+36%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$10	+$9	+85%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$1	$0	+22%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?	Apr 25	$19	+$13	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	94¢	$40	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$30	3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	100¢	$59	4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	51¢	$30	5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$66	10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$3	28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	29h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	79¢	$9	37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	36¢	$10	37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	37h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	53¢	$10	38h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	59¢	$25	39h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5)	SELL Sweden	99¢	$25	2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5)	BUY Sweden	40¢	$10	2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	SELL Germany	98¢	$37	2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	7¢	$0	2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	7¢	$1	2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	BUY Germany	53¢	$20	2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	98¢	$53	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	92¢	$50	3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	18¢	$1	3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)	BUY Türkiye	9¢	$1	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	89¢	$32	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	55¢	$20	3d
Spread: United States (-1.5)	SELL United States	94¢	$22	4d
Spread: United States (-1.5)	BUY United States	43¢	$10	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records