Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
28 0x2870…0264 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$127 (+10%) realized +$109 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$123
sports 36% +$32
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 41% +2.1%
≤30d 29 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 41% +2.1%
≤90d 29 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 41% +2.1%
all 29 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 41% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 41% +2.1%
10% -20.7% 41% -7.7%
15% -28.4% 38% -16.6%
20% -35.4% 24% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$18 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)29 / 36
History coverage6d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Mbappe 55¢ 69¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+25%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 62¢ 64¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 63¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 31¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 28¢ 30¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $28 +$15 +54%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $14 −$11 -77%
João Félix: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 +$16 +158%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$25 +50%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 −$3 -6%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$63 +124%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 +$19 +188%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $55 +$15 +27%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 −$4 -9%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $71 −$71 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$106 +344%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -86%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $40 +$20 +50%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $130 +$65 +50%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$3 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $82 −$3 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $44 33m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $4 38m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL Yes 12¢ $3 41m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 58m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $51 58m
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $10 59m
João Félix: 1+ assists SELL Yes $0 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $15 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $76 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $28 2h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2h
João Félix: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 13h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 42¢ $48 13h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $51 13h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $10 13h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 38¢ $10 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $10 13h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 22h
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $20 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $50 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 69¢ $14 23h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $10 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 65¢ $19 30h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $20 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.67 · official $257.68 (match) · 62 history records